2004 – Letter to Senator Baucus
Senator Max Baucus
I’m flattered you ask my opinion. Here it is. Going into Iraq was gray not black and white but we could justify it morally using most recently Milosevic as a precedent.
The issue is whether exporting democracy to this area in hopes of providing an alternative to the darkness of solely theocratic indoctrination with no tolerance for other views is justified. Turkey is an example that democracy can happen in Muslim States.
If we had not deposed Saddam, and he did develop nuclear weapons and wanted for example Kuwait, we’ve got the same problem we have with North Korea. It’s a stand off. We might not be able to stop him. And this is the most strategic area because of oil.
As for our economy, for the first time I can remember, we really have deflation. Cars with rebates, TV prices falling, restaurants reinventing themselves with $13 entrees down from $28 with the internet business diminished. Only housing because of low interest rates and commercial real estate because of fear of the stock market have not deflated. Housing will deflate when rates go up and even with the Fed keeping them low, a $600 billion deficit per year for the foreseeable future (Senator Rudman, Pete Peterson, Sam Nunn) adding to a $6 trillion debt load and a falling dollar has to mean higher government rates hence higher corporate rates, higher loan rates, housing prices fall.
So a tax cut (really $35 billion a year) on a budget of $2.2 trillion is a short term political move to get the President reelected and will have virtually no impact on the economy except to imprudently run up debt. The President riding on the war victory and tax cuts still looks good. However, if nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan result in a mess and the economy deteriorates more with more unemployment, Kerry maybe Lieberman have a good shot if they take on a conservative theme with strong defense with Edwards maybe Vice President nominee. Gerphard on universal health is the wrong issue and I think the wrong personality.
What really scares me is the Defense Department putting its imprimateur on “smaller” nuclear weapons. This gives the idea credibility to any third World dictator or well financed terrorist who comes around. Just one of those bombs will wipe out San Francisco or the Fresno bread basket for 100 years. Nuclear warfare is simply unacceptable and weapons should only be used or updated for mutual assured destruction. Our leadership should make it clear we will not use it tactically. Some leaders here and elsewhere toss using it around in speeches as if it were acceptable.
Life’s interesting. You make your best judgment and hope you are right whether its defense or the economy and you must be ready to admit you are wrong if it doesn’t work.
Warmest regards,
Peter